The Oak Bluffs wastewater commission determined this week that the town will not have the wastewater flow to support Green Villa, the largest proposed Island housing project in recent memory, until roughly 2031.

The decision on Monday comes after months of back-and-forth between the town and the developer of the 116-unit housing project eyed for Edgartown-Vineyard Road. The housing application is currently before the Oak Bluffs zoning board, which is set to make a decision on the controversial housing project later this month.

Developer William Cumming, owner of Atwood Company, has repeatedly expressed his desire to hook up all 116 units to the town’s sewer. After being told that capacity could be an issue, he suggested backup options combining sewer and on-site septic. 

Wastewater commission officials said that while the town is advancing toward increased sewer capacity, it will be several years before Green Villa could reasonably hook up all 116 proposed units.

“We don’t have the capacity now, because we have other obligations,” said wastewater commissioner Gail Barmakian.

Oak Bluffs’s two-phase wastewater flow expansion project for the area is underway, but phase one will yield less additional flow than expected due to inflationary costs. 

Much of the flow the town expects to gain in the short term is also already committed to the Tackenash Knoll housing development, veteran housing, the Martha’s Vineyard YMCA and the high school, officials have said.

The commission determined that the amount of additional flow left over from the first phase of the expansion project after these agreements are honored will not be sufficient to support Green Villa’s projected need of 16,280 gallons a day.

“We have very good math to say we don’t have the flow,” said wastewater commissioner Cassandra Bowler.

But wastewater commissioners said the town could potentially grant Green Villa the total flow it needs after the second phase of its wastewater expansion plan is complete. This could be as early as 2031 if the town expedites the expansion plan as it currently stands.

Officials noted, however, that speeding up the expansion plan could require a vote at town meeting to release the funds to do so.

In discussing how to ease the burden of the town’s wastewater expansion plan, the wastewater commission also expressed interest in having Oak Bluffs join the Cape Cod and Islands Water Project Fund, which subsidizes certain water quality projects in member towns. This could make speeding up the plan less expensive, wastewater commissioner Ms. Barmakian said.

Mr. Cumming did not return a request for comment on the wastewater outlook on Tuesday.

Proposed in 2023, the Green Villa development is set to contain affordable “40B” units, market-rate units and units for those who meet 150 per cent of the Island’s average median income — a subset that is being considered more as the cost of the housing market continues to rise.

But the project has been contentious, with the developer challenging Island officials on a number of procedural matters.

In May, the state Housing Appeals Committee settled a dispute between the developer and the town about whether or not Oak Bluffs had “safe harbor” status when Green Villa was proposed. Municipalities can claim “safe harbor” status if the town has hit a certain percentage of affordable housing, giving them the ability to be more restrictive in the permitting process.

Because the Housing Appeals Committee ruled that Oak Bluffs was not in safe harbor at the time Green Villa was proposed, Green Villa can skirt certain zoning bylaws.

The developer is also currently embroiled in a legal dispute with the Martha’s Vineyard Commission as it refutes the commission’s ability to oversee affordable housing projects.

Wastewater commissioners wondered what leverage Mr. Cumming might have to challenge their decision given Green Villa’s 40B status.

“We have environmental concerns. We have a town that’s dying for flow. But I thought because this was affordable housing, it’s very hard to say no to it,” Ms. Bowler said.

The Oak Bluffs zoning board will deliberate granting Green Villa a comprehensive permit on Nov. 19. The Martha’s Vineyard Commission is tentatively set to make a decision on Dec. 4.