Timothy Johnson

After Paris Withdrawal Real Work Begins

In everyone’s favorite 1940s movie, Rick tells Ilsa, “We’ll always have Paris”. Well, maybe not.

In one of the memorable lines in everyone’s favorite 1940s movie, Rick tells Ilsa, “We’ll always have Paris”. Well, maybe not.

On June 1, in an in-your-face expression of American exceptionalism, the current President announced that our country would withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, joining Nicaragua (which thought that the pact did not go far enough) and Syria (which has other things on its mind). This was in opposition to the other 195 countries in the world that have endorsed and are relying on the Paris accord to address the existential threat posed by global warming.

To paraphrase the Princeton bioethicist Peter Singer, this decision represents a moral failing of the most serious kind.

Truth be told, though, the Paris agreement itself is a questionable framework on which to hang the fate of the planet. In December 2015, 98 per cent of the nations in the world agreed in Paris to voluntarily start down a path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that would hold global temperature rise to 2 degrees centigrade by the end of the century (with an aspirational goal of holding that temperature rise to 1.5 degrees ). Note that 2 degrees centigrade has long been held to be dangerous territory.

Even at the time of the signing of the accord, achievement of this goal was highly unlikely. Global temperatures (average atmospheric temperatures above land and ocean) had already risen 1 degree centigrade above pre-industrial levels, and a warming of 1.5 degrees centigrade by the year 2100 is already locked in by the volume of greenhouse gases we have already emitted. In fact, if all of the parties to the agreement were to achieve their GHG reduction targets by the year 2030, but then kept their emissions constant, global temperatures would be highly likely to rise by at least 3.5 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with catastrophic consequences.

Even the GHG reductions agreed to in Paris, moreover, are very unlikely to be achieved. Take the U.S. goal – a 28 per cent reduction in overall emissions by 2030 from a 2005 baseline. There are a number of paths that we could take to reach that goal, but none are easy. For example, we could completely electrify our ground transport systems — no more gasoline-powered engines. Vehicles represent about 30 per cent of our national GHG emissions, so that would do the trick as long as the electricity to power them was carbon-free. However, since the automobile fleet turnover cycle in the US is 15 to 20 years long, this is very unlikely to happen. Alternatively, we could engineer a 40 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions from everything else in the energy ecosystem, including the impact of a growing economy — not an easy task. Other approaches to GHG reductions are equally daunting.

So what is to be done? Our country’s abandonment of its Paris commitment is most assuredly an abandonment of our former role as a global leader. It appears that other nations will step forward to lead at that level. For our part, state and municipal governments, including many in Massachusetts, have already signaled their willingness and resolve to fill the leadership vacuum in the U.S.

There is also an important role for grass-roots efforts. Here on the Vineyard, we have an established set of town and non-profit organizations working hard on the Island’s renewable energy future. As it has done with preservation of open space and environmental sustainability, Martha’s Vineyard can have an outsized influence as a model for other communities.

Recently, with recognition and approval by the Island towns, we have established an active-citizen-driven committee focused on sustainable energy on an Islandwide basis: the Vineyard Sustainable Energy Committee. VSEC’s role is not to supplant the efforts of existing town energy committees or the work of the Martha’s Vineyard Commission in this area, but to serve as a communications forum for information sharing and outreach, to develop a high-level sustainable and resilient energy plan for the Island, and to selectively advocate for sustainable energy policies and projects.

The World Meteorological Organization recently announced that global temperatures in 2016 were a record 1.1 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels, supplanting 2015 (which supplanted 2014) in that dubious category. On May 30, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 409.4 parts per million, the highest level in at least 800,000 years and 46 per cent higher than in pre-industrial times (the 18th century). It will never again be below 400 ppm in our lifetime, and it will without doubt be significantly higher.

Nevertheless, a recent survey of international experts in energy and climate reported that the majority of them were optimistic that we could indeed decarbonize our energy systems by 2050 and thus avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. The VSEC members share that optimism.

With any luck, we’ll always have the Vineyard. At least most of it.

Rob Hannemann is a year-round resident of Chilmark. A former professor of engineering at Tufts University, where he taught courses in sustainable energy systems, he is chairman of the recently established Vineyard Sustainable Energy Committee.

Comments

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 06/20/2017 - 07:32

Permalink

Tony Massachusetts

Interesting that you didn't include the money we would have to pay out to other countries for the Paris Agreement to work. Many of those countries have less than honest leaders who most likely would have used the money for themselves instead of anything useful.

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 06/23/2017 - 06:37

Permalink

John Wiener Boulder, CO

Thanks, Dr. Hanneman! As a lover of the wonderful Vineyard since 1957 I want to send my appreciation for the efforts your group and the MV Island Plan group and Commission and others have made. Among the very good efforts. I wish to acknowledge the work on local food; the wide variety and high levels of thoughtfulness have been admirable. The saddest gap in MV capacities and energy saving may be in the housing and residential building stock. Given the limits on growth and the disfunctionality of the extreme inequalities between our affluent and those who struggle to live and work here, I hope your group can help stimulate new thinking about the efficiencies of new renovation of older housing now used only for summer as a deal between owners whose value would be increased and renovators who would be getting vocational training and workers who would be given affordable housing for the 3 seasons while care taking, in a managed program. The gap for summer housing might be approached using a residential project for summer use on the state forest, centrally located for transit, and potentially the scene of an exemplary project for smart growth for seasonal needs. People like you and the MIT, NYU and other MV lovers have made new ideas come true on the island -- Cheers for the creative folks!

Add new comment

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.